There is really no scientific way to tell when our severe drought could come to an end, according to a nationally recognized weather expert on Thursday.
The former Weather Channel hurricane specialist Dr. Steve Lyons was in town speaking to a local group about two pressing issues -- the drought and hurricanes.
Lyons, now the meteorologist in charge of the forecast office in San Angelo after working for the Weather Channel for 12 years, told Corpus Christi Rotarians that there is no real way to say when we're going to get enough rain to put an end to this lingering drought.
"You really need, to be quite honest, a couple really big rain events; and that may require to have flooding in the city as well," Lyons said. "You can't have your cake and eat it too."
He told Rotarians that it is hard to predict how much rain summer showers will bring, and that, unless those rains happen over lakes and other reservoirs, we can't know for certain if they will help alleviate the drought. So predicting an end to a drought is very difficult.
"One of the problems is, if you forecast, if you're in one season and trying to forecast into another season, the weather patterns change, and so the predictability drops in a hurry," Lyons said. "So your reliability goes down in a hurry. So the next 30 days, you may have a little more rain than average, a couple of fronts coming through, it's starting to get warmer, a couple thunderstorms flaring."
When it comes to hurricanes for this year, Lyons said the Coastal Bend area has been fortunate, but this could be the year that our luck runs out, and for that reason, he said we need to be prepared.
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