CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The National Hurricane Center is giving a tropical wave moving in to Nicaragua today a low (20%) chance to develop over the next 5 days. Most likely time for development will be Friday/Saturday as the disturbance in questions moves into and through the Bay of Campeche.
Most forecast modeling is suggesting limited development of this tropical wave...likely a tropical a depression at most Friday or Saturday.
There are some factors in play that will limit the development potential. First, sea-surface temperatures are plenty warm for development - which isn't a surprise in the Gulf of Mexico in the middle of summer. Water temps are not the only factor that lead to development, though
Forecast guidance is suggesting a streak of wind shear in the Bay of Campeche on Thursday as the system in question is entering the Bay of Campeche....that will mitigate development opportunity. It's also forecast to be moving fairly quickly, likely only having Thursday night, Friday, and Saturday over water, giving it about 48 hours to develop. That's not a whole lot of time.
For the Coastal Bend, it's looking like a Saturday night/Sunday morning 'landfall' in Northern Mexico. A system moving in to this area would fling more tropical moisture into the South Texas Gulf Coast & Coastal Bend Saturday and Sunday, leading to scattered showers and storms. Some would likely produce heavy rain. Not ready to throw a rainfall map our just yet, as it's still 4/5 days out.
As of Tuesday afternoon, this is a system to watch, not worry about. It could be another beneficial rain-maker, without the hazards of a full fledged tropical cyclone. Stay tuned.
RELATED: 2022 Hurricane Guide: Download Now
Tropical activity tends to pick up in August, with longer-track storms developing off of the west African coast. Development is likely as tropical waves approach the Leeward Islands. Longer tracks can take these storms into the Gulf, along the Florida Coast, and up the East Coast.
2022 KIII Hurricane Season Forecast
2022 NOAA Hurricane Season Forecast
Hurricane Season runs from June 1 - November 30, peaking on September 10.