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TROPICAL UPDATE: Invest 91L forecast to develop & move west across the Caribbean

Invest 91L is the tropical wave to watch as it heads west, through the Caribbean Sea this week & next. It has a high probability to develop over the next 5 days.

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Tropical Depression 12 will likely fall apart before becoming a tropical storm, meaning it will not get a name. Invest 91L has a high probability of developing in the Caribbean over the next 5 days and is the system to keep tabs on.

Credit: Alan Holt
Tropical Overview OCT 5

Invest 91L will move nearly due west across the Caribbean Sea, entering an environment with very little wind shear. This should mean organization is favorable. Sea-surface temperatures are also well into the middle 80s in the Caribbean.

Credit: Alan Holt
Wind Shear October 5

Forecast guidance brings this system toward Central America late in the weekend or early next week. With high pressure sitting in the gulf, a northward turn while Invest 91L is in the Caribbean is unlikely.  This is something to watch, not worry about for Texas.

Credit: Alan Holt
October 5 Spaghetti Plot - Invest 91L

Holt out

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RELATED: 2022 Hurricane Guide: Download Now

October can be somewhat active in parts of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Climatology tells us that the Western Caribbean and Eastern Gulf of Mexico can be favorable for tropical development. In the Western Gulf, the odds of a tropical system coming drop off as cold fronts become more frequent and systems bend north earlier in the Atlantic/Caribbean.

Credit: KIII Weather

The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the climatological peak of the season happening on September 10.

Credit: Kristin Walla
Tropical Climatology

2022 Hurricane Names

Credit: Kristin Walla
2022 Atlantic Hurricane Names

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