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WEATHER BLOG: Cristobal's forecast track & the side effects the Coastal Bend will experience

Q: "What is keeping Cristobal from making a turn toward South Texas and the Coastal Bend? Short Answer: High pressure. Long answer in blog...

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The 7AM, Wednesday forecast cone for Tropical Storm Cristobal brings the tropical storm into Mexico today, downgraded to a tropical depression as it sits over Mexico Thursday, and then back into the Bay of Campeche Friday.  Cristobal will then track north, regaining tropical storm strength, making landfall somewhere between Galveston and New Orleans as a tropical storm Sunday night/Monday morning.  So, what's keeping it from making a sudden turn toward South Texas?

Credit: kiii

High pressure in Mexico this morning will slowly drift to the northeast, along with Cristobal.  High pressure acts as somewhat of a buffer and because it will be west of the storm, the storm won't want to make a turn into the high.  High pressure centers are 'blocking' features.

By Sunday, the high will be centered over the Central Plains and moving east.  That eastward movement from Sunday into Monday will likely cause Cristobal to make a more westerly movement.  How far west, still in question.  But that's why I think the TX/LA border is still somewhat vulnerable.  A graphical progression of this below... 

Credit: kiii
Credit: kiii
Credit: kiii

For The Coastal Bend, effects will be minor and confined to the coast.  The storms will pass 400-500 miles off-shore from the Coastal Bend as it tracks north.  We'll experience higher than normal waves and longer period swells leading to higher than normal tides and minor coastal flooding.  Also, an elevated risk for rip currents.  If you have plans to go to the beach this weekend, driving will be difficult due to coastal flooding and swimming will be dangerous because of the rip current risk.  Take note.

Credit: kiii

- Holt, out