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WEATHER BLOG: First rain chance this month + more dust on the same day?

July has been rain free, to date, but a small chance for rain arrives Friday. At the same time, another batch of Saharan Dust will try to move in to Texas.
Credit: kiii

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — After generous rains in late May and June, July has been a dud.  No rain.  It's also been oppressively hot with daily heat advisories blanketing the region.  The first chance for rain this month will arrive, Friday, but it will only be a modest shot - not a huge rainmaker.

This chart shows energy in the middle/upper atmosphere. Watch as a weak upper level disturbance (currently in Mississippi) pin-wheels around the influence of the high pressure system that's been delivering steady hot/humid weather. As the high shifts a bit farther north, Friday, the disturbance will sneak in from the east. This should provide enough left/moisture to squeeze out isolated showers. The first chance for rain this month. The disturbance moves into Mexico, Saturday, lowering rain chances locally.

Posted by Alan Holt 3 News Meteorologist on Tuesday, July 14, 2020

The high pressure system that has been influencing us is over West Texas this morning.  In Mississippi, a weak upper atmosphere disturbance is moving south, pinwheeling around the influence of the high.  Into Friday, the high shifts north and the weak disturbance moves west, continuing around the high.  By Friday, it'll be in a position to provide some extra lift/moisture over South Texas.  That should at least lead to isolated showers in the area.  By Saturday afternoon, the system will be in Mexico, removing rain chances for South Texas.

Credit: kiii
Credit: kiii
Credit: kiii

After a very active start to hurricane season, the tropics have been quiet, and will continue to be quiet for much of the remainder of July.  Another plume of Saharan Dust has emerged in the Atlantic/Caribbean, aiding in the lull in activity.  Some of this dust will work in to Texas at the same time as rain chances move in, Friday.  Images below show the current Saharan Layer, inactive Atlantic Basin, and model forecast for Saharan Dust Friday.  This batch should not be as dense or long lasting as what we had earlier in the year.

Credit: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Credit: kiii
Credit: kiii

Holt, out