CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The forecast track looks like a big question mark! Lots of uncertainty is right. Tropical Depression 22 forms in the southern Gulf. Forecast to be named Wilfred tomorrow. Near hurricane strength Friday. Changes likely.
Invest 90L, the tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche is showing signs of becoming more organized this morning. ASCAT wind data is suggesting a closed low is either about to or already present. Tropical Depression status is likely at some point today in the low shear environment the system is currently in.
While forecast confidence is relatively high in the short term (through the weekend), it's what happens after the weekend that things become more murky. This disturbance will drift north, through the weekend. It will interact with a cold front that will have moved through Texas and stalled in the Gulf of Mexico at that time. So, there are two possible scenarios, given this information, at this time.
- The storm moves north, interacts with the stalled front, and kicks to the east, toward the northern gulf states next week.
- The storm moves north over the weekend, interacts with the front, and slowly deflects to the west, down wherever the stalled front is resting. This is reflected in the spaghetti plot from this morning's data. You can see more models have this westerly turn, paralleling the front.
It needs to be expressed that forecast confidence is low at this point. Exact track, strength, impacts, timing are all going to be adjusted. This is the latest as of this morning. Just to drive the uncertainty point home, look at the mess the Euro Ensemble is printing for Invest 90L. Fun!
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