CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The Atlantic Hurricane Season in July tends to be quiet compared to the months ahead. Ocean waters are still warming and the long track trans-Atlantic storms aren't yet developing. There are three development zones tropical systems tend to develop. This is not an exhaustive list...
- The Eastern Caribbean
- Gulf of Mexico
- The SE Atlantic Coast, over the Gulf Stream
It's been a relatively active start to the season with four tropical storms already in the books. While a few developments are likely to occur in July, I do not see anything in the foreseeable future in the Gulf of Mexico. Moving in to August and September we will see more action. Remember, the forecast is still calling for an active season.
The 2020 season will become more active in the more favorable months of August and September. The El Nino Southern Oscillation Index is trending in the direction of a weak La Nina in the more active months of the season. La Nina tends to lower wind shear, leading to a more favorable environment for tropical systems to develop. On the chart below, the lower than normal sea surface temperature anomalies in the Eastern Pacific (that's where this is measured) are predicted by most models. Values below 0 indicate La Nina.
Regardless of the month we are in, it's best practice to be aware and stay prepared and informed during ALL of hurricane season.