CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — What a wild 2020 hurricane season it's been. We're into the Greek Alphabet and had Beta hit the Texas Gulf Coast in mid-September. After a wild week of activity, the tropics have hit the pause button. 3 decaying systems and the Hurricane Center is not expecting any activity over the next 5 days. Stress level, down.
Looking down the forecast road, we are still in hurricane season through November. While the statistical odds of a storm coming our direction (Coastal Bend) go way down in late September and into October, we will need to keep watch. Not necessarily worry. Case and point...
The long range European and GEFS Ensemble guidance is hinting at something trying to develop in the Western Caribbean Sea into the first few days of October. While this is still way too long for my liking, it does jive with where October tropical systems tend to develop, historically (see, Michael - 2018).
I'm not a huge fan of long range forecasting in the tropics and I don't think we need to worry about anything, anytime soon. Just something to watch; as is the case most of the time in the tropics.
Holt, out.
